In US presidential elections, you can buy votes for $100 to $200 each!

I'm going to write on a money-related topic that doesn't have any immediate connection to Tim Sykes's stock trading strategy, but if you're looking for the connections you will probably see them. Tim teaches a kind of realism and skepticism that I think are appropriate to politics, and assumes (as I do) that we stand to gain a lot by asking ourselves, "where is this organization getting its money from, and what are the motivations of the group's financial backers?"

I read a Facebook post recently which claimed, "Dollars can't vote in elections. Only people can vote."

This carries some literal truth to it but aside from that I think it's basically wrong. Let's look at the 2012 election.

According to the New York Times, total spending by candidates and the SuperPACs that supported them was $1.25 billion (Romney and supporters) and $1.05 billion (Obama and supporters).


The number of votes in this race was about 127 million, with 66 million to Obama and 61 million to Romney.

A simple calculation shows that Romney and his supporters spent about $20.50 for every vote Romney received, while Obama and his supporters spent about $15.90 for every vote they received. Swing states are where most of the spending takes place though, because a small number of votes in these states could change the result of the national election. In Ohio, Obama & allies spent about $24 for every vote received while Romney & allies spent about $30 for every vote received. (Calculated from these sources: Votes / Spending )

This is not how much it costs to buy a vote, though. A useful vote is much more expensive. In a "swing state," the actual election results can be really lopsided. But in swing states, each side is almost guaranteed to get at least 40% of the votes. So in a swing state, the percentage of voters who are "persuadable" could be 20% (this is pretty speculative -- it could be smaller or larger, but a swing state in a lopsided election, such as Ohio or California in 1980 (both were swing states) favors one side over the other by less than 20 percent of total votes cast.

If we assumed that all of Obama's and Romney's 2012 spending in Ohio was aimed at 20% of Ohio voters, they (with their allies) collectively spent $146 million wooing 1.1 million voters, or $133 per vote.

A Few Good Pumps

SANB-- technical support at $0.56. Possible large percentage drop if it breaks that point. This pump could keep moving up, though.

ARTH-- technical support at 1.20-1.21. If it breaks down past 1.20, expect it to go down by 10 to 30 cents/share

Disclaimer-- I am not a registered investment adviser and this is not investment advice. The material on this site is provided for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, nor does it mean that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. I cannot and do not assess, verify or guarantee the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information, the suitability or profitability of any particular investment or methodology, or the potential value of any investment or informational source. Site users bear sole responsibility for their own investment research and decisions. Anything written on this website is solely the opinion of the author unless it is clearly and expressly stated as fact.

What Triggers Tim?

I will be writing this blog to give fellow Tim Sykes students my views and predictions on what Tim Sykes is going to do next in his day trades. I won't be predicting exactly what Tim does so much as helping you to see what price levels have to be crossed in order to be a breakdown or breakout, in stocks that Tim has already put on his watch list. When these stocks reach an appropriate breakdown or breakout point, Tim, as well as other successful traders who use his strategy, will buy or short-sell the stock.

These predictions will be based on Tim's strategy to short-sell pump-and-dumps and buy earnings-winners and contract-winners. Pump-and-dumps are companies whose stock price is the result of marketing campaigns that are designed to sell stock rather than than the company's ability to sell real products and services. A company that has been pumped may be a company that sells real products. But it is either a real company that is worth a tiny percentage of what the market capitalization seems to suggest, or it's a pretend company -- the people in charge have no intention of turning a profit by selling products, because they just want to sell stock.